Scenario

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Definitions

European Definitions

European Commission

[Risk] scenario is a representation of one single-risk or multi-risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative example or illustration. [1]

CLIMATE-ADAPT

Scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [2]
Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline.
ENTSO-E
Scenario: The forecasted status of the power system for a given timeframe. [3]


European Project Definitions

CIPRNet project

The CIPRNet project [4] uses the following definition:

A scenario consists of a CI Model, the initial states of all components and the scenario behaviour that describes the events that happen

within the scenario.


DIESIS project

The DIESIS project [5] gives the following definition:

A scenario consists of a CI Model, the initial states of all components and the scenario behaviour that describes the events that happen

within the scenario.



RESIN project

The RESIN project [6] gives the following definition:

A plausible description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g. rate of technological change, prices) and relationships. [7]


Other International Definitions

IAEA

Scenario is a postulated or assumed set of conditions and/or events. [8]
Most commonly used in analysis or assessment to represent possible future conditions and/or events to be modelled, such as possible accidents {...}. A scenario may represent the conditions at a single point in time or a single event, or a time history of conditions and/or events (including processes).

IPCC

A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [9]
Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline.

WHO

Scenario: An account or synopsis of a possible course of events that could occur, which forms the basis for planning assumptions (for example, a river floods, covering a nearby town and wiping out the local population's crop). [10]


National Definitions

Canada

A hypothetical situation or chain of events that depicts an incident, emergency or crisis and that is delivered to exercise players through a narrative to guide simulation during an exercise.

Situation ou série d’événements hypothétiques décrivant un incident, une urgence ou une crise qui est présentée aux participants sous forme de récit afin de diriger la simulation lors d’un exercice. [11]


Denmark

Et scenarie er en tænkt ulykke/begivenhed til belysning af, hvordan en risiko kan udmønte sig i praksis i form af hændelsesforløb og konsekvenser. [12]


Germany

A scenario is a situation or a sequence of events requiring a response from those participating in the exercise. [13]

Szenario: Annahme von möglichen Ereignissen oder Abfolgen von Ereignissen und deren Einwirkungen auf Schutzgüter. [14]


Italy

Scenario dell’evento: Evoluzione nello spazio e nel tempo del solo evento prefigurato, atteso e/o in atto, pur nella sua completezza e complessità. [15]


Jordan

A scenario is a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. [16]


Mexico

Escenario climático: Representación plausible y a menudo simplificada del clima futuro, basada en un conjunto internamente coherente de relaciones climatológicas, que se construye para ser utilizada de forma explícita en la investigación de las consecuencias potenciales del cambio climático antropogénico, y que sirve a menudo de insumo para las simulaciones de los impactos. [17]
Las proyecciones climáticas sirven a menudo como materia prima para la construcción de escenarios climáticos, pero los escenarios climáticos requieren información adicional, por ejemplo, acerca del clima observado en un momento determinado. Un ‘escenario de cambio climático’ es la diferencia entre un escenario climático y el clima actual.

Netherlands

[Dutch; fire fighting] Een keten van gebeurtenissen die zich voordoet vanaf het ontstaan van brand,zonder hierbij te bepalen of de kans op brand realistisch is. [18]


Spain

Escenario: En un contexto no artístico, conjunto de factores que condicionan un posible estado futuro de un sistema determinado. [19]
Esta acepción es un anglicismo ya muy extendido en castellano, que aún no recoge el Diccionario de la Real Academia de la Lengua.

Sweden

A scenario refers to a hypothetical event for which variables such as place, time, weather etc., and their values have been specified. [20]


United Kingdom (UK)

Scenario is a plausible description of a possible future state of the world. [21]
These use specific assumptions on how aspects of the world might change, like economies, social trends, changes in technology, environmental changes, etc., based upon the best understanding available.

United States

DHS
Scenario is a hypothetical situation comprised of a hazard, an entity impacted by that hazard, and associated conditions including consequences when appropriate. [22]

NERC
A scenario is a possible event. [23]

NIST
Scenario is a sequential, narrative account of a hypothetical incident that provides the catalyst for the exercise and is intended to introduce situations that will inspire responses and thus allow demonstration of the exercise objectives. (from: NIST SP 800-04) [24]

Standard Definition

ISO 22300:2012(en)

Pre-planned storyline that drives an exercise; the stimuli used to achieve exercise objectives. [25]

Discussion Topic

A postulated sequence or development of events. - Oxford Dictionary.

See also

Notes

  1. European Commission, COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, SEC(2010)1626 final, Brussels, 21.12.2010
  2. European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Glossary
  3. ENTSO-E Glossary of Terms
  4. http://www.ciprnet.eu/
  5. http://www.diesis-project.eu/
  6. http://www.resin-cities.eu/
  7. Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Annex II: Glossary. [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
  8. IAEA - Nuclear Security Series Glossary Version 1.3 (November 2015)
  9. IPCC
  10. WHO: Glossary of Humanitarian Terms
  11. Vocabulaire de la gestion des urgencies/Emergency Management Emergency Management Vocabulary 281 (2012)
  12. [HÅNDBOG I RISIKOBASERET DIMENSIONERING, Beredskabsstyrelsen, Denmark (2004)]
  13. IT Emergency and Crisis Exercises in Critical Infrastructures, BMI - Federal Ministry of the Interior (2007)
  14. Methode für die Risikoanalyse im Bevölkerungsschutz
  15. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Glossario
  16. The National Climate Change Policy of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 2013-2020
  17. Glosario IPCC, Mexico
  18. Risicobeoordeling 16.0: Een kansrijk kader; Theorie achter het risicomanagementproces en leidraad voor risicobeoordeling, June 2015
  19. Glosario Mapama, government Spain
  20. Swedish National Risk Assessment 2012
  21. The National Adaptation Programme: Making the country resilient to a changing climate, UK Government (2013)
  22. DHS Risk Lexicon 2010 Edition, September 2010
  23. NERC Glossary of Terms, May 2015
  24. NIST Glossary
  25. ISO 22300:2012(en) Societal security — Terminology

References